Let us examine with charts and graphs these kinds of changes:
Detailed Racial and Ethnic
Change
Changes in Comparative
Size of Age Groups
Foreign Birth and Language
Changes
Changes in Family Structure
Changes in Education
Levels and Employment Patterns
Poverty Level Changes
Housing and Mobility
Changes
DETAILED ANALYSIS OF BRONX RACIAL AND ETHNIC CHANGES
As we have seen, certain racial and ethnic categories pose problems.
1. The most troublesome issue is the absolute separation of "Hispanic" from racial categories. There is no such thing as a "Hispanic race," and therefore, all Hispanics, like everybody else, must identify themselves with one or more particular races. Everyone must choose among White, Black, American Indian, Asian, Pacific Islander, or "other race." But these categories seem to relate to traditional (Anglo) American definitions, and are simply not accepted by some people with different cultural backgrounds - notably by many Hispanics.
2. Hispanics are not a monolithic group. Most US Hispanics are of Mexican ancestry and tend to call themselves "White." But most Hispanics in the Bronx are of Puerto Rican background and refuse to call themselves "White."
3. At times the notion of race is best understood by considering the Hispanic issue also. Thus, in The Bronx "non-Hispanic White" designates a clearly defined group which differs in geographic location, age structure, and income levels from Hispanic Whites.
4. All Americans, Hispanics and non-Hispanics, are rapidly evolving in their conceptions of race and ethnicity. Will the grandchildren of today's Hispanics still be "Hispanic," or will that much maligned melting pot work for many of them? Do most people still understand "White" as meaning "the absence of any ancestors who are not white"? Will our historic racial designations remain the same a generation from now? The Census Bureau has recognized such issues by allowing, for the first time, a person to call himself two or more races.
In light of these considerations and the problems noted in the earlier
section, the following charts are only general hints at ethnic changes
in The Bronx. Of course, some developments are clear. The non-Hispanic
White population has steadily declined from 1960 to the present; the Black
population has risen substantially, though less over the past decades;
and Hispanics have increased to the point that they are nearly half of
the Bronx population. Except for the turbulent period of the 1970's,
increases in minorities have more than compensated for the non-Hispanic
White emigration, as total population figures illustrate.
Looking at each major ethnic group, we see a more complex reality, as noted above.
Among non-Hispanic Whites, each major ancestry group has also fallen dramatically. Italians and Irish seem to be moving toward the "minimal" number of the other major groups. And there seems to be no significant turnaround for the Russians, despite their influx into nearby Brooklyn. As for the Irish, the steep slope of their decline from 1990 to 2000 could be caused by increased economic opportunities in Ireland.
Among Hispanics there is also dramatic change. As the following two charts show, Puerto Ricans and Dominicans still predominate among Hispanics, but for the first time the Puerto Rican population is declining - more than compensated by the rise of Domincans. It is unlikely that there will be another boost in Puerto Ricans, since their island has only 3.8 million inhabitants. Mexico, Central America, and South American states like Ecuador have larger populations than any Caribbean islands, and so it is likely that the Bronx Hispanic population will become more diverse - and a good deal larger - in the coming years.
The 2000 American Community Survey (ACS) and Census 2000 (SF1) differ
on the specific national origins of Bronx Hispanics. SF1 counts 133,000
Dominicans, but for ACS there are 168,000. For Puerto Ricans, SF1
counts 319,000 and ACS 340,000. We might be inclined to prefer SF1
(the "100% count"), but then how does one explain the figures for Bronx
Tract 1 (the Rikers Island Prison)? SF1 counts 3,443 Hispanics
in this tract, with the following origins: 97 Puerto Ricans, 29 Mexicans,
2 Cubans, and 3,315 "other" (SF1, Table PCT 11).
We can see a shift in the ethnic identification of Hispanics. A clear and growing majority refuse to identify themselves by any of the traditional US racial classifications (even though, starting in the 2000 Census, they could choose more than one of the traditional races, almost 2/3 of Bronx Hispanics refused to choose any, and continued to say they were "other race"). Again, the two versions of the 2000 census do not agree on the relative weight of "white" and "other race", just as they did not agree on the size of the Dominican population in 2000. In ACS, roughly 2/3 of Hispanics identify themselves as "other race" and 1/4 as "White". In SF1, roughly half are "other race" and 1/3 "White".
CHANGES IN COMPARATIVE SIZE OF AGE GROUPS
National percentages are shown at the extreme right of the
chart. Comparing the 2000 figures for The Bronx to this "benchmark"
we see that the Bronx population is more young and less old than the national
population - not surprising in view of the Bronx ethnic makeup. Comparing
The Bronx in 2000 with earlier years, we see a decline in the percent
over 65 and a rise in the adult population (particularly strong in the
35-54 group). Time will tell whether the increased percentage in
the 5-17 group is a permanent reversal of an earlier decline.
FOREIGN BIRTH AND LANGUAGE CHANGES
Perhaps the most dramatic change in recent years has been the rise in the foreign born population. By the year 2000, there were more foreign born in The Bronx than in 1960 (when the population was almost 10% higher). More than three-quarters of the foreign born are from Latin America. But note that the migration trend for Puerto Ricans is much different.
Language changes mirror the flow of populations from abroad. Now in The Bronx more people speak a foreign language at home than speak only English. And, of course, Spanish is the predominant foreign language. In fact, if trends continue, within a decade more people will speak that one "foreign" language than speak only English. Consequences for social and educational policy are obvious.
CHANGES IN FAMILY STRUCTURE
The decline in the "traditional" nuclear family of mom+pop+kids seems
to be slowing down. Interestingly, the increase in the proportion
of non-family households (people who live alone, in institutions, or with
non-relatives) seems to have stabilized since 1980. This is true
even though the senior citizen population, where a good proportion live
in such conditions, is declining.
Among families with kids, the "traditional" pattern changed after 1970; now most are headed by a single parent. But, as the next chart shows, the number of mom+pop+kid families is no longer falling - in fact may be slightly rising. But so are the single mom families with kids. ACS and Census 2000 (SF1) once again differ on the magnitude of the increase for single mom families. But given the link between single mom families and poverty, any increase means multiple social problems.
From the standpoint of kids themselves, most now live with only one parent. Note the dramatic difference before 1980 and after. But the number of kids living with both parents has also increased over the past decade. Is it possible that welfare policy, immigration patterns, and the general economic condition of The Bronx will help bring even more kids into mom+pop families?
CHANGES IN EDUCATION LEVELS AND EMPLOYMENT PATTERNS
Here we have good news. Close to two-thirds of Bronx adults now have at least a high school education. A growing population of educated adults means a growing skilled labor force. But, as we show elsewhere in this document, the playing field is still not level for those who are not White.
Labor force and employment figures seem curiously at odds with the
increased level of education. Of course, as more "16 and up" people
continue as full-time students, they increase the numbers of those not
in the labor force. The same is true for non-working single parents,
and recent immigrants looking for work. Those immigrants who do not
speak English well must face a job market in New York City increasingly
focused on technical service work, while suburban manufacturing jobs may
be hard to get to without a car.
POVERTY LEVEL CHANGES
Bronx residents in 2000 are often not those who were living there a decade earlier. Looking at the chart that follows, we cannot simply conclude that "poverty has increased," without knowing how many of the poor are new arrivals. Nonetheless, the overall poverty rate in The Bronx has increased, slowly but steadily, since 1980. Social policies have kept 80% of the seniors above poverty, but two-fifths of the babies in The Bronx are still below the poverty line. Many of them may be in newly-arrived families, which makes the matter harder to solve but not less shameful.
HOUSING AND MOBILITY CHANGES
There are not many old-time residents left in most of The Bronx, though, when we analyze data at the tract level, we see pockets of stability in the middle class areas, particularly where private homes predominate. As the "social conditions" chart indicates, more housing now has amenities like telephones, but housing costs continue to be a heavy burden on ordinary Bronx residents.
